Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
