Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
